Quantifiable Edges Subscription Pricing Going Up – Lock In Current Pricing Now!

Posted by in Subscriber Features/Letter May 14, 2014

Quantifiable Edges subscription prices have not increased in over 3 years.  But on Wednesday 5/21 prices for Quantifiable Edges Gold subscriptions will be rising.  Fortunately it is not too late to lock in at our current pricing.  To do so, you simply need to start you subscription before the 5/21 price increase takes effect.

 

Since our last price increase in 2011 Quantifiable Edges has continually updated our research and greatly expanded the features available with Gold subscriptions.  What started out as just a subscriber letter has grown substantially over the years.  A few of the more notable changes just since our last price increase in 2011 include:

 

We believe the value of a Quantifiable Edges subscription has increased greatly over the last 3 years.  And prices will be going up next week to reflect a portion of this value increase.  Current subscribers will be grandfathered in at their initial price level.  To lock in current pricing you simply need to start a subscription before 5/21/14.

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Market Timing Course Feedback & Enhancements

Posted by in Subscriber Features/Letter May 14, 2014

After the first few weeks, the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course  has received an incredible amount of positive feedback.  We also received some helpful feedback from purchasers who wanted to see a few more things.  Therefore, we have added some features to the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course and wanted to make readers aware of them.

These first few enhancements were done to the Market Timing Course Downloads page.  To be able to access it, you must first complete the course.

1) The Excel spreadsheets that show historical triggers and results for our price-action based indicators are now updated on a regular basis.  Those that purchase (and complete) the course may download these spreadsheets any time to get the most recent performance history and status of the indicators.

2) The Tradestation Code for the price-action based indicators is now downloadable in text format for people that would like to translate it to work on their platform.

3) Thanks to a Market Timing Course student, the indicators are now also available for download in Ninja Trader format.

Additionally, updated indicator charts and statuses may be found at any time on the Market Timing Course Indicator Charts page.

And the Market Timing Course now has its own Facebook page, so  if you liked it, then please Like it!

And if you want to hear what others have had to say about the course, here are just a few of the comments we have received in the last couple of weeks:

Thanks Rob. It’s an awesome course.
– Mauro (Gold subscriber)

The Market Timing Course was absolutely informative and valuable.
– Durk (Gold subscriber)

Well researched, straightforward and simple.
-Jose (Gold subscriber)

Great job on the course! Very simple approach & well presented.
Thanks,
Steve (Gold subscriber)

The format was excellent, lessons were short and to the point.
-M.A. (Gold subscriber)

I think it was very helpful how you broke the material into segments and had small testing at the end. It made it easier to digest all the material.
– Mike W (course purchaser)

I found it very useful. I liked the format – I thought the short sections aided both initial learning as well as subsequent review…this has given (me) a statistical rationale, rather than a mere “gut feeling”. Thank you.
David B. (course purchaser)

Thanks for the course, which for me was like an appetizer to dig deeper into the QE universe. I’ve been reading the blog for quite some time…the course provided new insights to me…
Thanks,
Simon (course purchaser)

I loved the course. Very detailed information on some compelling strategies.
– J.Z. (course purchaser)

Your new market timing course is friggin awesome.
Jim (@jimkoford)

 For more details, or to purchase the course, click here.

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Why Monday’s Low Volume Was A Positive

Posted by in Quantitative Study, volume May 13, 2014

One thing I liked about the breakout on Monday was the low volume. Textbooks often refer to this as a negative, but the study below, which I have shown a number of times over the years, shows that for major market breakouts it has actually been a positive This first stats table examines fresh breakouts (1st new high in a least 2 weeks) that have occurred on DECREASING volume.

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Here we see that there appears to be a strong upside inclination over the first week. Beyond that there isn’t too much of an edge.

Next, I ran the stats when the breakout came on increased volume rather than lower volume. Those are shown below.

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As you can see, higher volume breaks to new highs do not carry the same bullish implications. These stats appear to be almost dead neutral. So bulls should not be worried about Monday’s lack of volume. In fact, they should be encouraged by it.

 

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After SPY Stages A Strong Comeback For A Marginal Gain

Posted by in Quantitative Study May 6, 2014

The study below is one I have shown a few times in the past. It suggests that when SPY closes strong (in the top 10% of its range) but still only manages a small gain on the day, that the next day has a downside tendency. Here is the stats table.

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As you can see the numbers imply a bit of a bearish inclination. It appears that when the market needs to expend a fair amount of energy just to squeak out a small gain, that its lack of momentum is often followed by a swing back in the opposite direction the next day.

 

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What SPY’s Bounce Action Implies

Posted by in Quantitative Study April 30, 2014

The studies below appeared in the Quantifinder yesterday and the Gold Subscriber Letter last night. The first one looked at times the SPY bounced up 2 days in a row but still failed to close above the close of 3 days ago.

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The stats suggest a moderate upside edge over the 1st 2 days.

To see the importance of the “close < 3 days ago” filter let’s also examine those times when the 2-day rally was strong enough to close above the close of 3 days ago. Those results are below.

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As you can see, that small change makes a big difference. Two days out total gains are about the same despite the fact that there are about 5 times as many instances.

Of course today is a Fed Day…

 

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Introducing the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course!

Posted by in Quantitative Study April 24, 2014

Quantifiable Edges has provided quantitative research and analysis since 2008.  But until now we have never released a product focused on long-term market timing.  That changed Wednesday with the release of the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course!

Whether you are an inexperienced trader looking to improve your approach to timing your investments, or an active trader with an eye towards better determining your intermediate to long-term market bias, the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course has something for you.

In the course I share 4 time-tested long-term market timing indicators. I show exactly how each one works, and provide detailed historical information about each of them. I then builds on the concepts and shows how different combinations would’ve performed over time.

Below are some of the features included with the course.

  • The course is divided into 10 “lessons”. Each of these is between 3-11 minutes long. Upon completion of the course, students may go back and review any of the lessons at any time.
  • The lessons total about 1.25 hours of video instruction detailing the indicators, their history, different combinations, and expert analysis, including a discussion of how investors may want to utilize the indicators going forward.
  • Detailed spreadsheets are provided that include calculations for the price-based indicators and full signal history dating back to at least 1971 and as far as 1960.
  • Tradestation code is also provided, along with preset workspaces with the price-based indicators and strategies applied.
  • Detailed Excel spreadsheets are provided at the end of the course, which show signals and performance metrics for all of the combinations discussed.
  • Access to the Market Timing Course Indicator Charts page, where students can check the status of the indicators covered at any time.

For more information, check out the Market Timing Course signup page.

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Updating Intraday Holy Thursday Returns

Posted by in Quantitative Study, seasonality April 16, 2014

In the past I have shown that the Thursday before Easter (also known as Holy Thursday) has exhibited a bullish inclination over the years. Last year I broke out that performance by overnight vs. intraday returns. I have updated that research today.  Intraday returns will be shown here. Overnight returns can be found on Overnight Edges.

The study below shows historical performance from open to close on Holy Thursday.

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Numbers here appear solidly bullish. Below is the list of instances.

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Instances highlighted in purple are the 5 that started with a gap down. All 5 of these gaps were filled at one point during the day, and all 5 instances saw SPY close above where it opened (with 2 of them making for the largest 2 gains of the 20 listed).

There are numerous ways to try and take advantage of this information. In general, traders should be aware that Holy Thursday has exhibited seasonal strength, and that strength has often begun to exert itself the night before. For a more detailed breakdown of the overnight returns, check out today’s Overnight Edges blog post.

 

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Happy Tax Day! (Again)

Posted by in Quantitative Study, seasonality April 15, 2014

Today is the day taxes are due in the U.S. The reason tax day may be important is that it is the last day that people can make IRA contributions to count for the previous tax year. This can create a last-minute rush and you will often have an inflow of funds heading into the market right around and on April 15th. Fund managers will often put this money to work immediately and it creates a positive bias for the market. Tax Day itself seems to have benefited over the years. I showed this on the blog last year.  Below I have updated the statistics.

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I will note that last year certainly did not fall in line, as it produced the worst loss of the sample. But the overall numbers still appear impressive.

 

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What’s Historically Followed Strong Selloffs Like Thursday’s

Posted by in Quantitative Study April 11, 2014

Strong selloffs to low levels during long-term uptrends often generate favorable buying opportunities. Quantifiable Edges had a number of studies that triggered on Thursday afternoon that exemplified this concept. Below is just one example. It examines 2% drops that close at both the bottom of their daily range and their 10-day range.

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The 1-2 days results here are especially intriguing. They suggest a good chance of a bounce.

 

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SPX New High On A Day NDX Sells Off Strongly

Posted by in Quantitative Study April 7, 2014

The new all=time intraday high Friday for SPX came on a day when NDX had its worst day in over a year. There has never been another time where SPX made a 200-day intraday high while NDX had its worst drop of the last 200 days. Loosening the criteria to a 50-day high for SPX and the biggest drop in 50-days for NDX there have been 5 instances.

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Too few occurrences to put much confidence in an edge, but the limited results are fairly impressive. I note that every instance had a run-up of at least 5%, and the largest drawdown was under 3.2%.

 

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Quantifiable Edges for Short-Term Trading – Free Webinar Tuesday As Part of the Festival of Traders!

Posted by in Uncategorized April 7, 2014

I’m going to be participating in The Festival of Traders this month.  It is a 2-day event that features webinar presentations from 8 traders.

I’ll be speaking about short-term trading.  My talk is scheduled for 4:45pm EST on Tuesday, April 8th.  Time not convenient?  No worries! Register using this link and recordings of all speakers will be automatically sent to you at the conclusion of the Festival.

And beyond my talk, the line-up looks very impressive.  In fact, 2 of the 7 guys I placed on my list of “Real Deal Traders” will be talking – Scott Andrews and Dave Landry.

This is a Quantifiable Edge I suggest you take advantage of!

Again, the link to register is available here.  (Nothing but an email address required.)

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Putting the Current Intraday Employment Hot Streak Into Perspective

Posted by in Quantitative Study, seasonality April 4, 2014

It looks like the jobs report this morning is getting a positive reaction, and unless there is a sizable turnaround before the open, it will again lead to a gap higher. Last month I showed how SPY had done on Employment Days between the 9:30am open and the 4pm NYSE close. I’ve updated that study below.

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Since the beginning of 2013 the intraday performance has been quite strong. Let’s take a look at the individual instances.

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Last month was the biggest loser of the bunch. (Though with the big gap up last month SPY did still close above the previous day’s close.) Overall, it appears the recent tendency has been for the market to post gains throughout the day. I will note, though, that while this has been the trend since the beginning of 2013, it has not been the long-term bias of the market. There have been hot and cold streaks throughout history. For those that want to put the current hot-streak in a long-term perspective, here is a chart going back to 1993.

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So the hot streak appears notable – but not completely reliable.

 

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Early April’s Strong Bullish Tendency

Posted by in Quantitative Study, seasonality March 31, 2014

Early April has been a strong period for the market over the years. The study below looks at the last 20.

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Numbers here appear impressive. I should note though, that 2 of the losers for the 4-day holding period came in 2012 and 2013. It’s too early to say that the edge is no longer prevalent. I’m still giving this one the benefit of the doubt, but we’ll need to keep watch over the next few years to see if this last two years was just a blip, or whether the tendency is really changing.

 

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What Follows Solid Gains During OpEx Week

Posted by in Quantitative Study March 24, 2014

Strong moves on most opex weeks will often be followed by a pullback the following week. This can be seen in the study below, which I have shown a number of times over the years in the Subscriber Letter.

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The stats suggest a short-term downside edge. Four days out the SPX has closed lower more than 2/3 of the time, and the losers have been a little larger than the winners on average. Traders may want to remain aware of the strong possibility of a pullback this week.

 

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Where SPX Would Be Without The Fed

Posted by in Fed Study, Quantitative Study March 19, 2014

I have shown how powerful Fed Days have been a number of different ways over the years. Ever wonder where the market would be without them? The chart below shows the daily points gained and lost on every day since 12/31/97 through 3/18/14, excluding Fed Days. Keep in mind, there are only 8 days per year being left out.

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As you can see, without Fed Days the SPX would still be about 15 points below the 2007 high, and close to 50 points below the 2000 high!

Thanks Fed!

 

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