Memorial Day Week & The Changing Seasonal Picture

The week of Memorial Day has shown some seasonal strength over the years. But it has faltered greatly the last few. The chart below examines SPX performance from the Friday before Memorial Day to the Friday after it.

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There was no substantial edge apparent throughout the 70s, but starting in 1983 through 2010 there was a bullish tendency. The last 4 years this week has really struggled. It is too early to tell if a permanent change in character has occurred, but traders who for years saw impressive returns during Memorial Day week may want to note the above. At the least I would say the upside tendency no longer appears as reliable as it once did.


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