Quantifiable Edges | Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

Rob Hanna, founder

Quantifiable Edges has been publishing quantitative research, systems, and trading ideas since 2008. We utilize technical analysis concepts and quantify them in a way that allows traders to determine the edge that was provided in the past. Breadth, volume, sentiment, volatility, Fed-induced liquidity, seasonality, and price action are all used to assess market conditions. Gold and Silver level subscribers are led through Rob Hanna’s interpretation of the data in a simple and complete manner via the nightly and weekly subscriber letters. Gold subscribers also have complete access to our subscriber area, which includes the Quantifinder, custom charts, trading systems (with code), special research, and more.

Both private and institutional traders have taken advantage of the vast tools and studies that have been developed over the years. Some of the most popular indicators include the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) and the Aggregator. Quantified research related to Fed policy and action around Fed Days is available. Subscribers also have access to the full archive of letters back to 2008, which include thousands of original studies.

Additionally, Quantifiable Edges provides unique courses for longer-time market timing and quant-based swing trading. Both self-paced courses include detailed market research, and show traders how to take advantage of it. They also come with supporting software for those traders interested in furthering the research and ideas on their own.

And for traders that are interested in mechanical trading strategies, the Quantifiable Edges ETF Momentum Swing Portfolio provides nightly signals, while the Quantifiable Edges Big Time Swing System is an open-coded, robust, non-optimized trading system that can be traded as-is or used as a base for traders to adapt into their own system.

Beginner, advanced, and institutional traders have all taken advantage of the research, teachings, and tools provided by Quantifiable Edges since 2008. Free trials to the gold subscription service are offered with just name and email required. You may follow Quantifiable Edges on Twitter (@QuantEdges), Facebook, LinkedIn, or receive blog posts and updates from Quantifiable Edges directly to your email.

Persistency Beyond Almost All Other Rallies

Posted on January 22, 2020 by Rob Hanna

Last week I noted the current rally was reaching historical extremes for persistency. Here I will look at another study from the subscriber letter, and then update last week’s study. In last night’s letter I looked at all times back to the inception of the NASDAQ in 1971 in which both SPX and the NASDAQ Composite closed above their 10ma for at least 30 days in a row. The short list is below.

2020-01-22

Only 3 previous instances. And one of those was in the current move higher during November. Of course another way to look at it is how I did last week, in that SPX has only seen 5 closes below the 10ma since October 10th. We have now reached the point where just 5 of the last 70 trading days have closed below the 10ma. Other times where that has happened are 1972 (March), 1965 (Nov), and 1933 (Jul). That is it. And if it reaches 5 out of 71 days on Wednesday, then it is just 1972 and 1933 that you can point to.

Finding short-term trading opportunities in such a market can be difficult. It is tough to find a meaningful historical edge when the market is trading so far beyond historical norms.

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Learn how to identify edges and formulate swing trading strategies with the Quant Edges Swing Trading Course!

The Remarkable Persistency of the "not QE" Rally

Posted on January 16, 2020 by Rob Hanna

The persistency of the rally over the last 3 months has been amazing. The chart below is of SPX. I have marked where the Fed announced the “not QE” program back in October. The blue line is the 10-day moving average of SPX.

2020-01-16

I have noted a few times lately that the market has gone an extended period without any closes below the 10ma. But what is more remarkable is how few days it has closed below the 10ma since “not QE” was announced on October 11th. In the last 67 trading days, there have only been 5 closes below the 10ma for SPX. There has not been a 67-day period with only 5 closes below the 10ma since 1972. And looking back to 1928 (when the S&P 500 was the S&P 90), there have only been 6 other instances: September 1929, July 1933, March 1943, June 1957, November 1965, and late February / early March of 1972. In other words, the persistency of this rally is extremely rare, and over the last 48 years, it is unheard of.

Note: The article above is an excerpt from last night’s Quantifiable Edges Subscriber Letter

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The Most Wonderful Week of the Year...Until Last Year

Posted on December 16, 2019 by Rob Hanna

I have written many times over the years about the bullish tendency of the market during opex week in December. I’ve even referred to it as “The Most Wonderful Week of the Year”. And it was…up until last year. So below is an updated look at the stats and profit curve for owning SPX from the close of the Friday before December opex to the close on December opex.

2019-12-16

That is a 7% loss you are looking at in 2018. So that will likely take several years to get over. But we are entering the time of year when the market typically has the seasonal winds at its back. And despite the 2018 December collapse, that is something traders may want to keep in mind this week (and even a bit longer).

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Learn how to identify edges and formulate swing trading strategies with the Quant Edges Swing Trading Course!

Historical Fed Day Performance By Chairperson

Posted on December 10, 2019 by Rob Hanna

I have written about Fed Day edges for years. Much of the research can be found in the Fed Study category blog posts. Today I decided to share a chart showing historical performance on Fed Days over the course of the last 5 Fed chairpeople.

2019-12-10

Have a happy Fed Day tomorrow!

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Learn how to identify edges and formulate swing trading strategies with the Quant Edges Swing Trading Course!

Black Friday Sale at Quantifiable Edges!

Posted on November 28, 2019 by Rob Hanna

We have decided to bring Black Friday to Quantifiable Edges for the 2nd time. We rarely have special sales at Quantifiable Edges, and have not had any since last year, so if you have been thinking about a subscription, or the Swing Trading Course, now is the best opportunity you’ll see for a long time. Check out our best offers below to start trading with a Quantifiable Edge!

Quantifiable Edges Gold Annual (with access to the Market Timing Course) – $850 for the next 13 months! That is $550 savings versus a monthly subscription and a separate Market Timing Course purchase! After the initial 13-month period, subscription will renew at the annual rate of $950.

Quantifiable Edges Annual Preview Offer – $32 for the last 32 days of the year, then $950 for 2020! For those who have never subscribed before, here is a low-cost extended look at all the gold subscription has to offer to help you finish off 2019 with a Quantifiable Edge. This will renew at our low annual rate for 2020.

Quantifiable Edges S wing Trading Course– $200 off. Down from $950 to $750! This is the lowest price ever offered for our highly rated course that teaches a quantified approach to swing trading.

The Quantifiable Edges Black Friday sale won’t last long, and it may never return. To take advantage, simply use the link below now to sign up.

https://quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/signup/black

Happy Thanksgiving!