Quantifiable Edges | Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

Check out the new Seasonality Calendars!

Quantifiable Edges Overview

Quantifiable Edges has been publishing quantitative research, systems, and trading ideas since 2008. We utilize technical analysis concepts and quantify them in a way that allows traders to determine the edge that was provided in the past. Breadth, volume, sentiment, volatility, Fed-induced liquidity, seasonality, and price action are all used to assess market conditions. Gold and Silver level subscribers are led through Rob Hanna’s interpretation of the data in a simple and complete manner via the nightly and weekly subscriber letters. Gold subscribers also have complete access to our subscriber area, which includes the Quantifinder, Seasonality Calendars, custom charts, trading systems (with code), special research, and more.

Both private and institutional traders have taken advantage of the vast tools and studies that have been developed over the years. Some of the most popular indicators include the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) and the Aggregator. Quantified research related to Fed policy and action around Fed Days is available. Subscribers also have access to the full archive of letters back to 2008, which include thousands of original studies.

Additionally, Quantifiable Edges provides unique courses for longer-time market timing and quant-based swing trading. Both self-paced courses include detailed market research, and show traders how to take advantage of it. They also come with supporting software for those traders interested in furthering the research and ideas on their own.

Beginner, advanced, and institutional traders have all taken advantage of the research, teachings, and tools provided by Quantifiable Edges since 2008. Free trials to the gold subscription service are offered with just name and email required. You may follow Quantifiable Edges on Twitter (@QuantifiablEdgs), Facebook, LinkedIn, or receive blog posts and updates from Quantifiable Edges directly to your email.

June Seasonality for $MID

Posted on June 1, 2021 by Rob Hanna

I have begun sharing one of the Quantifiable Edges Seasonality Calendars each month. This month I decided to show the S&P Midcap 400.

The Quantifiable Edges Seasonality Calendar uses multiple systems to measure historical performance on similar days to those on the upcoming calendar. The systems look at filters like time of week, month, year and so forth. Over the long run, staying out of the market on days that do not appear in green, would have been beneficial. To appear in green the date needs to show a historical Win% of 50% or more and a profit factor of 1.0 or more.

We see some solid seasonal numbers to start off the month. Then it is a mixed bunch for a few weeks. The strongest numbers in June appear in the last 2-3 days. Of course there will be many other factors impacting market action. But historically, avoiding days that do not appear in green has proven beneficial across all the markets we track. This is discussed in the “50/1 Calendar Research Paper”, which is available on the Seasonality page in the client section of Quantifiable Edges. It is available to all subscribers, including those on a free trial.

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$SPX Loves Tax Day

Posted on May 17, 2021 by Rob Hanna

In the 4/12/19 blog I showed a study about US tax day (normally April 15th). The reason tax day may be important is that it is the last day that people can make IRA contributions to count for the previous tax year. This can create a last-minute rush and you will often have an inflow of funds heading into the market right around and on the day taxes are due. Fund managers will often put this money to work immediately and it creates a positive bias for the market. Below I have updated the study.

Futures are struggling in the overnight. Let’s see if this seasonal tendency can turn it around by the close today.

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The GLD Seasonality Calendar for May Looks Lousy

Posted on May 3, 2021 by Rob Hanna

I have begun sharing one of the Quantifiable Edges Seasonality Calendars each month. Last month, we looked at the NASDAQ. This month the calendar that caught my eye was GLD, the Gold ETF. It looks lousy (technical term term for “sucky”).

The Quantifiable Edges Seasonality Calendar uses multiple systems to measure historical performance on similar days to those on the upcoming calendar. The systems look at filters like time of week, month, year and so forth. Over the long run, staying out of the market on days that do not appear in green, would have been beneficial. To appear in green the date needs to show a historical Win% of 50% or more and a profit factor of 1.0 or more.

Obviously, what stood out with regards to GLD is how bearish it appears. Only 3 “green” days all month is the worst for any of the 10 indices/securities we publish. The Baseline hurdles are fairly low, and they are rarely exceeded in the May calendar. Seasonality is just one factor, but I have found paying attention to it to be worthwhile. A couple of months ago, I published a research paper that showed the value of avoiding gold on days that did not show favorable seasonality odds. That paper is available to all subscribers, including trial subscribers, on the Quantifiable Edges Seasonality page. It is titled “Gold 50/1 Calendar Model Research”.

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Webinar: A Long-Term Look at Markets & Opportunity with Capital Advisors 360

Posted on April 25, 2021 by Rob Hanna

I am going to hold a webinar for Quantifiable Edges followers on Monday after the market close. I will be joined by Jeff Pietsch, who is the principal of Capital Advisors 360, which is the investment advisory firm I work with. We will be discussing some long-term outlooks for the stock and bond markets based on a few different models. We will also share ideas on ways to enhance traditional portfolio allocations with alternative strategies. To register for the webinar, you may use the link below. Note…all registrants will receive a copy of the recording, so no worries if the time does not work for you.

https://quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/signup/CA360

Webinar Info:

Date/Time: Monday, 4/26/2021 4:15pm Eastern Time

Topic: A Long-Term Look at Markets & Opportunity with Capital Advisors 360

Online Meeting Link: https://join.freeconferencecall.com/robh60

April Seasonality Calendar for the NASDAQ

Posted on April 4, 2021 by Rob Hanna

I have begun sharing one of the Quantifiable Edges Seasonality Calendars each month. Last month, we looked at long-term treasuries. This month the calendar that caught my eye was the NASDAQ Composite Index.

The Quantifiable Edges Seasonality Calendar uses multiple systems to measure historical performance on similar days to those on the upcoming calendar. The systems look at filters like time of week, month, year and so forth. Over the long run, staying out of the market on days that do not appear in green, would have been beneficial. To appear in green the date needs to show a historical Win% of 50% or more and a profit factor of 1.0 or more.

Obviously the NASDAQ stood out because its Calendar is almost all green. But not only do we see mostly green this month, I’ll also note that almost every day up until April 23^rd we see numbers above the “baseline”. The baseline is simply NASDAQ stats over about the last 10 years. So the next 3 weeks we see that NASDAQ seasonality is both positive, and mostly better than average. Traders may want to keep this in mind along with other factors they consider as they establish their market outlook over the next few weeks.

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