Quantifiable Edges | Assessing Market Action With Indicators & History

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Quantifiable Edges Overview

Quantifiable Edges has been publishing quantitative research, systems, and trading ideas since 2008. We utilize technical analysis concepts and quantify them in a way that allows traders to determine the edge that was provided in the past. Breadth, volume, sentiment, volatility, Fed-induced liquidity, seasonality, and price action are all used to assess market conditions. Gold and Silver level subscribers are led through Rob Hanna’s interpretation of the data in a simple and complete manner via the nightly and weekly subscriber letters. Gold subscribers also have complete access to our subscriber area, which includes the Quantifinder, Seasonality Calendars, custom charts, trading systems (with code), special research, and more.

Both private and institutional traders have taken advantage of the vast tools and studies that have been developed over the years. Some of the most popular indicators include the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) and the Aggregator. Quantified research related to Fed policy and action around Fed Days is available. Subscribers also have access to the full archive of letters back to 2008, which include thousands of original studies.

Additionally, Quantifiable Edges provides unique courses for longer-time market timing and quant-based swing trading. Both self-paced courses include detailed market research, and show traders how to take advantage of it. They also come with supporting software for those traders interested in furthering the research and ideas on their own.

Beginner, advanced, and institutional traders have all taken advantage of the research, teachings, and tools provided by Quantifiable Edges since 2008. Free trials to the gold subscription service are offered with just name and email required. You may follow Quantifiable Edges on Twitter (@QuantifiablEdgs), Facebook, LinkedIn, or receive blog posts and updates from Quantifiable Edges directly to your email.

Weakness Prior to the "Weakest Week"

Posted on September 17, 2021 by Rob Hanna

For years I have written about the “weakest week”. It is the week following the 3rd Friday in September, and it has been the worst week seasonally when measured over many time periods. I wrote about it in some detail recently in ProActive Advisor Magazine.

But this year we are seeing two weeks of selling before we even get to the “Weakest Week”. So did the weakness arrive early this year, and are we more likely to see a move higher next week because of this? This is something I examined last year. Below I have updated the table showing all instances of 2 week selloffs heading into the Weakest Week, and then the Weakest Week return.

There have only been 11 instances. But 10 of 11 saw further selling in the Weakest Week. The lone winner (1989) only managed a 0.58% return. The average week of the sample saw a 1.41% loss. This is not encouraging for people hoping for a bounce next week.

Low in the 5-Day Range but High in the 10-Day Range

Posted on September 8, 2021 by Rob Hanna

Tuesday’s action caused SPY to close in an interesting position. Traders could look at the chart and say it is “short-term oversold” due to the fact that it closed at a 5-day low. They might also say it is “short-term overbought” since it closed above its 10-day moving average. I have found that edges often arise when something is short-term overdone in one timeframe, but overdone in another direction in another timeframe. The study below looks at the current discrepancy.

Results here suggest a solid edge over the next 1-5 days. Below is the 5-day profit curve.

The strong and persistent upslope is impressive, and serves as some confirmation of the bullish edge suggested by the numbers. Traders may want to keep this in mind when setting their bias for the next few days.

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Back to Back Outside Days for $SPY

Posted on August 4, 2021 by Rob Hanna

Notable about Tuesday’s action is that it marked the 2nd day in a row that SPY posted an outside day. (An outside day is a day where the security or index makes a higher high and a lower low than the day before.) I last discussed back-to-back outside days in the 7/28/16 letter. I have updated those results below.

The numbers look very impressive. Most of the upside edge has been realized in the 1st 4 days. Below is a profit curve using a 4-day holding period.

The move up is impressive and encouraging for the bullish case.

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When DJI Rallies From 50-day Low to 50-day High Very Quickly

Posted on July 5, 2021 by Rob Hanna

The SPX, Dow, and NASDQ all closed at all-time highs on Friday. Just 10 days ago the Dow closed at a 50-day low. That quick of a move from low to high is quite an accomplishment. Over the last 101 years this just the 21^st time the Dow has managed to move from a 50-day closing low to a 50-day closing high within 10 days. Below are all the other instances, along with the $DJI performance in the following days and weeks.

The Dow has generally seen the upward momentum continue. Those are some impressive gains over the first 1-5 days, and even out through 20 days. Traders may want to keep this in mind when formulating their bias.

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First Day Performance of Each Month

Posted on July 1, 2021 by Rob Hanna

Since the late 80s there has been a tendency for the market to rally on the first day of the month. One theory on why this occurs is that there are often 401k inflows that are put to work on the 1st of the month. I examined this tendency and broke it down by month here on the blog a few times over the years. I decided to update the study again today.

The only month that comes even close to July from a Win % and Avg Trade standpoint is February. I’ll also note that August is the worst performer of any month.

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