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About a month ago, I hit a major milestone with Quantifiable Edges. I passed Cal Ripken. For those that don’t know, Cal Ripken was a Hall-of-Fame shortstop (and also a 3rd baseman) with the Baltimore Orioles from 1981-2001. He holds the record for consecutive games played (2,632). His streak lasted over 16 years – from May 30, 1982 – September 19, 1998.
Quantifiable Edges subscriber letter was 1st published on February 18, 2008. I made sure to write a letter for every market day that year. At the end of the year, I told subscribers that I would likely take a few days off next year. But I didn’t. At the end of 2009 I said the same thing. Again I ended up writing a letter for every day the NYSE was open. Now it has been about 16 ½ years. And in mid-June my streak officially went beyond the 16 years and 4 months that Cal Ripken recorded.
There has been plenty that has happened on a personal level over the last 16 ½ years, both good and bad. But through it all, I have run my studies, done some research, and posted a letter every single night. They haven’t all been good letters. Some were admittedly abbreviated, such as when I had the flu or when I was laid up with COVID. And some were dead wrong with my market interpretation. But they were published and distributed, and not a day was missed.
Like Ripken, I intend to step down from my streak at some point. I can’t do it forever. Right now I am leaning towards changing to an abbreviated version of the letter twice a week (Monday and Wednesday nights? Or a couple of nights when the market hasn’t done much?). I will likely start incorporating this new twice-a-week abbreviated format in 2025. And I may fiddle around with abbreviated formats some this year when I take vacation. (Yes, I have written every night on vacations as well.)
So I may slow down at some point, but it has been a great run, and I fully intend to keep it going a good while longer. Thanks to all my subscribers, who have helped keep me motivated for the last 16 ½ years! And thanks to Cal Ripken who kept me motivated the last couple of years as I realized I was approaching the length of time his streak lasted!
We’re excited to unveil the RealTest module for the Quantifiable Edges VIX Trading Course ! To celebrate, we’re offering an exclusive discount: get $200 off the course, and enjoy a whopping 90% off the RealTest module, available only through July 15th Chicken & Egg: Should you use the VIX to time the SPX? Or use the SPX to time the VIX? NAAIM Founders Award in May. It offers a glimpse into some of the advanced concepts covered in the course.
Whether you’re new to VIX-based trading or a seasoned pro, the Quantifiable Edges VIX Trading Course offers unparalleled insights and strategies. Take advantage of this limited-time sale and elevate your trading game. Already enrolled? Upgrade with the RealTest code now!Click here to buy now!
Since the late 80s there has been a tendency for the market to rally on the first day of the month. One theory on why this occurs is that there are often 401k inflows that are put to work on the 1st of the month. I examined this tendency and broke it down by month here on the blog a few times over the years. I decided to update the study again today.
As you can see, July has both the highest Win % and the largest Avg Trade. So maybe some of that July magic will help the bulls on Monday. I’ll also note that August has had the worst Day-1 performance of any month. Below is a more detailed look at how July has played out.
Impressive stats and curve. And the last 13 instances have all been winners. Traders may want to keep this in mind.
I had the pleasure of joining Andrew Swanscott on the Better System Trader podcast on Wednesday afternoon. We had a detailed discussion about VIX trading and my recent whitepaper that won the NAAIM Founders Award. It had been a long time since I was last on Andrew’s podcast, but he is always a fun person to speak with! I hope you enjoy it.
VIDEO You can also find it on your favorite podcast channels. If you haven’t listened to Better System Trader before, be sure to check it out. Andrew is a great interviewer and has a long list of interesting guests.
Starting on Tuesday, May 28th the trade settlement process is moving from 2 days to 1 day. This may not sound like a big deal. And if you trade primarily long-term strategies, or only with a margin account, then it isn’t. But for people that would like to incorporate short-term models into their IRA, this is of massive importance.
To demonstrate why, consider a simple model that trades 2 instruments: SPY and SHV. Most brokers will allow you to sell a security and then buy a new security with the cash in an IRA these days. But you can’t flip flop multiple days in a row, because you can not sell a security that you bought with unsettled cash and re-use the unsettled cash before the original trade settles.
Example with current 2-day settlement process:
Day 1: Holding 100% SPYDay 2: Sell 100% SPY and buy 100% SHV (allowed)Day 3: Sell 100% SHV and buy 100% SPY (This is not allowed because SPY sale from Day 2 will not settle until Day 4. So you cannot sell SHV and buy back SPY here with a 2-day settlement cycle.)To make it worse, with all brokers I know, the buys and sells would actually go through, but the account holder would be hit with a violation notice. If this occurs 3 times in a year, then most brokers will halt all trading in the account for an extended period. Others will take away the ability to trade anything on unsettled cash.
If you are trading in a portfolio with lots of securities and frequent ins and outs, tracking what you are allowed to trade and what you aren’t gets even more complicated.
On May 28th with the movement to a 1-day settlement process (T+1), this potential problem goes away. As long as you are not making multiple buys and sells in and out on the same day, these “freeride” violations will not occur.
With my own trading, as well as trading I do for clients at Capital Advisors 360 , I utilize several models that are capable of flipping positions after 1 day. The current T+2 settlement has prohibited me from trading some of these models in retirement accounts. But with T+1 arriving, it opens up many new opportunities for IRA holders to take advantage of these short-term models. If you have any questions on this, or if you would like to learn more about Capital Advisors 360 models and whether they could be incorporated into your portfolio, feel free to reach out.
