After Bounces Quickly Fail

Posted by in Quantitative Study September 26, 2014

Thursday quickly undercut Tuesday’s closing low and put an end to Wednesday’s bounce attempt. How has the market responded under similar circumstances in the past? For the study below, I look at times when a 20-day low was followed by a 1-day bounce and then another 20-day low (when above the 200ma).

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The numbers here look very solid and suggest a bullish edge for Friday. In fact, the setup has done especially well in recent instances. Below I listed the last 18 trades.

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17 of 18 winners is quite the streak.  I will also note that the stats have been substantially less impressive when SPX has been below its 200ma. This edge has only been prevalent during long-term uptrends.

 

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Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur?

Posted by in Quantitative Study, seasonality September 25, 2014

There is an old Wall St. adage that suggests “Sell Rosh Hashana. Buy Yom Kippur.” It implies that between those two holidays that the market often struggles. I looked back to 1998. First, a quick look at the general numbers. (Note – if either holiday was on a weekend then the Friday before was bought or sold.)

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At first glance there appears to be a solid bearish tendency. But the total loss appears to be thanks to primarily 1 instance. Here is a look at all the trades.

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2008 was the big standout here. I wondered what a profit curve might look like without 2008 included. Here is that.

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Very choppy and it has gone effectively nowhere.

Overall, my impression is that there may be some truth to the adage. But the dates are variable. They often fall during times in which there is weak seasonality (like the Weakest Week – this week). So I don’t think there is a reliable trade here, but perhaps the potential weakness is worth keeping in mind.

 

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SPY After Strong Closes For Weak Gains

Posted by in Quantitative Study September 12, 2014

I’ve seen a few bullish studies in the last few days, but the study below is one with potentially bearish implications for Friday. It is one I have shown a number of times in the past. It shows that when SPY closes strong (in the top 10% of its range) but still only manages a small gain on the day, that the next day has exhibited a downside tendency. Stats are updated..

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Good luck trading today, and have a great weekend!

 

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Possible Implications Of SPY Gap & Reverse Patterns The Last Two Days

Posted by in Quantitative Study September 8, 2014

Thursday saw the market gap up but reverse and close lower. Friday we had the opposite occur, with SPY gapping down but closing higher. It also closed at a new high on Friday, which triggered the study below.

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The numbers here are somewhat bearish, with much of the damage being done by day 2. Traders may want to give this study some consideration when evaluating the market’s prospects over the next day or two.

 

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Does Wednesday’s Big NDX Drop Hurt The Bull Case?

Posted by in Quantitative Study September 4, 2014

One interesting aspect of Wednesday’s action was that the NDX suffered its worst decline in at least 20 days while SPX made a 20-day intraday high. This is something I’ve looked at for subscribers in the past, but never shown on the blog. When I previously examined other instances I found little in terms of short-term implications, but the intermediate-term implications appeared strong. Below are updated results.

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Results here appear pretty strong throughout. The big NDX drop during an intermediate-term move higher for SPX has rarely derailed the rally. Most of the time it has been followed by additional gains.

 

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Labor Day Week When The Market Has Been Strong

Posted by in Quantitative Study, seasonality September 2, 2014

In past years I have shown that Labor Day week performance has often been poor when the market has rallied over the month (20 trading days) leading up to it. Below is a look at Labor Day week performance when the previous 4-week period has seen gains.

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This shows the poor performance record when there has been a rise in the market. Below is a look at the profit curve using a 4-day exit strategy.

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Definitely choppy. And the last couple of instances have seen gains during the week of Labor Day. But the overall downslope and evidence still has believing it is worth some consideration. (A strongly bullish performance this year could change my mind for the future, though.)

 

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Performance After 2 Unfilled Up Gaps & A 50-Day High

Posted by in Quantitative Study August 27, 2014

One interesting aspect of Tuesday’s action is the SPY gapped up above Monday’s close, and never filled that gap. This made the 2nd day in a row with an unfilled up gap. The study below is one I’ve shown before in the subscriber letter. It examined other times SPY left 2 unfilled up gaps and closed at a 50-day high. All stats are updated.

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The size of the follow-through isn’t terribly large, but it has been very consistent that some follow through was achieved in the next few days.

 

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A New SPX High With A Rising VIX To Start The Week

Posted by in Quantitative Study, VIX August 26, 2014

While the SPX closed up the VIX also rose. Most often they trade opposite each other, so this kind of action is somewhat unusual. But VIX has a tendency to decline going into the weekend (Friday afternoons), and then rise when it returns from the weekend. So to see this action on the first trading day of the week is less unusual than at any other time. Still, combined with the SPX 50-day high, it has been often followed by a dip in the next few days. This can be seen in the study below, which I last showed on the blog in May. Results are all updated.

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Results here appear squarely bearish for the 1-2 day time period. Traders may want to keep this in mind for the next couple of days.

 

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Performance After Fast Moves From A 50-Day Low To A 50-Day High For SPX

Posted by in Quantitative Study August 22, 2014

One amazing fact about the current rally is that Thursday’s 50-day high close came just 2 weeks after SPX closed at a 50-day low. That’s quite rare to see. The last time we saw a move from a 50-day low to a 50-day high occur so quickly was in October of 2011. The study below was originally published in the 10/17/11 letter and it examines such sharp moves. All stats are updated.

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There have only been 6 occurrences but the stats are overwhelmingly bullish over the next month. For those interested in exploring further, the dates were 8/1/61, 6/17/76, 8/20/82, 8/2/84, 6/24/98, and 10/14/11. Also notable but not shown in the stats above is that the average run-up of the 6 instances (5.4%) is over 5x the size of the average drawdown (1.0%) over the 1st 17 days. And every instance saw a run-up of at least 2x its drawdown.  Despite the low number of instances this study may be worth some consideration.

 

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SPX Performance After A Persistently Oversold VXO

Posted by in Quantitative Study, VIX August 18, 2014

Friday we again saw the VIX and VXO (the old calculation for the VIX) close well below their recent mean. Such stretches suggest a collapse in fear among investors. The study below was last seen in the 2/13/14 blog. It looks for stretches in VXO of 15% or more below the 10-day moving average that have persisted for three days.

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Based on the stats table there appears to be a short-term  downside inclination. I find the note at the bottom of the study to be especially interesting. Nearly every case has experienced an almost immediate pullback, but those that didn’t went without pulling back for a long time.

 

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When VIX Quickly Moves From Overbought To Oversold

Posted by in Quantitative Study, VIX August 14, 2014

After a few strong days you will often find some bearish studies appearing. But the Quantifinder provided no bearish evidence yesterday afternoon. Just the bullish one below. It considers the sharp drop in the VIX over the last couple of days after a sharp rise the previous few.

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The market condition that would typically accompany such VIX movement is one where you see SPX undergo a strong rebound from a sharp decline during a long-term uptrend, which is what we are currently looking at. Results over the first 2-3 days are not terribly consistent, but once you get out beyond that the bounce becomes more reliable and more powerful.

 

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Strong Bounces From Intermediate-Term Lows

Posted by in Quantitative Study August 11, 2014

I’ve been anticipating a bounce for a few days now, and this one seemed a little slow to arrive. But Friday put in a strong move, and we saw SPX go from closing at a 20-day low on Thursday to closing at a 4-day high on Friday. I decided to look at other times in which the market put in a strong thrust off a 20-day low. Here are the results.

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Day 1 is a bit iffy, but after that there appears to be a strong and consistent edge over the next 4 weeks. In the subscriber letter I looked at this study in a bit more detail. One thing I’ll note here is that without the 4-day high, up closes from a 20-day low still have a generally positive outlook. But the Avg Trade under those circumstances is about half what you see above for many of the time periods shown. Friday’s strong move up appears to be a positive.

 

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What Friday’s SPY Gap & Volume Action May Indicate

Posted by in Quantitative Study July 28, 2014

Not only did SPY leave an unfilled gap down on Friday, but it did so on relatively high volume. The study below, from the 1/13/10 blog, triggered. I took a new look and updated the stats.

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Implications here appear solidly bullish. We could see a bounce this week. Of course the Fed and other factors will also play in.

 

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What Thursday’s Solid VIX Rise Suggests About The Next Few Days

Posted by in Quantitative Study, VIX July 25, 2014

The study below is from last night’s Quantifinder. New readers may wonder why I use a day-of-week filter with this study. The VIX has a natural tendency to fall on Fridays and rise on Mondays. Because of this I typically separate out those days from the rest of the week when conducting VIX-based studies. This particular study looks at large (2.5% + ) mid-week rises in the VIX during times the SPX is closing at a 50-day high, like we saw on Thursday. All results are updated.

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Instances are a bit low, but the numbers are very lopsided and seem to suggest a downside tendency over the 1-4 day timeframe, with most of the damage being done in the 1st 2 days.

 

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