Does Wednesday’s Big NDX Drop Hurt The Bull Case?

One interesting aspect of Wednesday’s action was that the NDX suffered its worst decline in at least 20 days while SPX made a 20-day intraday high. This is something I’ve looked at for subscribers in the past, but never shown on the blog. When I previously examined other instances I found little in terms of short-term implications, but the intermediate-term implications appeared strong. Below are updated results.

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Results here appear pretty strong throughout. The big NDX drop during an intermediate-term move higher for SPX has rarely derailed the rally. Most of the time it has been followed by additional gains.

 

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About the author:

Rob Hanna is the founder of Quantifiable Edges, a quantitative market research service he has run since 2008. His research focuses on statistical analysis of U.S. equity markets. In 2009 he published "The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days," available on Amazon. He was named the 2024 recipient of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Founders Award and has since joined the NAAIM Board of Directors. Rob also works with Capital Advisors 360 as an investment advisor representative, where he utilizes quantitative and volatility-based models. Follow him on X / Bluesky / StockTwits / Facebook / Substack