Before tanking Tuesday afternoon the SPX managed to make a new intraday all-time high. The new high followed by a poor and downward close triggered the study below, which was shown in the Quantifinder Tuesday afternoon.

Results here seem to suggest an upside edge. The edge appears especially strong when looking out 6-8 days.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

SPY has now risen 2 days in a row but still failed to close above the close of 3 days ago. While this may be frustrating for those short-term bulls who were looking for a bounce, it has normally been followed by further gains. This can be seen in the study below, which was featured in last night’s subscriber letter.

The stats appear to suggest a bit of an upside edge over the 1st 2 days. To see the importance of the “close < 3 days ago” filter let’s also examine those times when the 2-day rally was strong enough to close above the close of 3 days ago. Those results are below.

As you can see, that small change makes a big difference. Two days out total net profit is about the same despite the fact that there are about 5 times as many instances.

Also notable about the next few days is that Wednesday is a Fed Day. For research regarding Fed Day edges, you may use the Fed Study label on the blog, or check out the Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days book.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

The market is short-term overbought by a number of measures. One measure that short-term traders will sometimes look at is the 2-period RSI. On Friday the 2-period RSI for SPX close over 99 for the 1st time since February. Very strong moves that put a stock or market in an extremely overbought short-term condition can mean that a pause or pullback is needed short-term. But for the intermediate-term it often bodes well. This can be seen in the study below.

The numbers here are basically neutral for the first week or so. But once you get out 2-3 weeks, it appears the strength has re-asserted itself and the market is often higher. This is an example of how strength can beget more strength. Traders may want to keep this in mind over the next few weeks.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

The study below is one I have shown a few times in the past. It suggests that when SPY closes strong (in the top 10% of its range) but still only manages a small gain on the day, that the next day has a downside tendency. Here is the stats table.

As you can see the numbers imply a bit of a bearish inclination. It appears that when the market needs to expend a fair amount of energy just to squeak out a small gain, that its lack of momentum is often followed by a swing back in the opposite direction the next day.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

The studies below appeared in the Quantifinder yesterday and the Gold Subscriber Letter last night. The first one looked at times the SPY bounced up 2 days in a row but still failed to close above the close of 3 days ago.

The stats suggest a moderate upside edge over the 1st 2 days.

To see the importance of the “close < 3 days ago” filter let’s also examine those times when the 2-day rally was strong enough to close above the close of 3 days ago. Those results are below.

As you can see, that small change makes a big difference. Two days out total gains are about the same despite the fact that there are about 5 times as many instances.

Of course today is a Fed Day…

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

Quantifiable Edges has provided quantitative research and analysis since 2008.  But until now we have never released a product focused on long-term market timing.  That changed Wednesday with the release of the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course!

Whether you are an inexperienced trader looking to improve your approach to timing your investments, or an active trader with an eye towards better determining your intermediate to long-term market bias, the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course has something for you.

In the course I share 4 time-tested long-term market timing indicators. I show exactly how each one works, and provide detailed historical information about each of them. I then builds on the concepts and shows how different combinations would’ve performed over time.

Below are some of the features included with the course.

• The course is divided into 10 “lessons”. Each of these is between 3-11 minutes long. Upon completion of the course, students may go back and review any of the lessons at any time.
• The lessons total about 1.25 hours of video instruction detailing the indicators, their history, different combinations, and expert analysis, including a discussion of how investors may want to utilize the indicators going forward.
• Detailed spreadsheets are provided that include calculations for the price-based indicators and full signal history dating back to at least 1971 and as far as 1960.
• Tradestation code is also provided, along with preset workspaces with the price-based indicators and strategies applied.
• Detailed Excel spreadsheets are provided at the end of the course, which show signals and performance metrics for all of the combinations discussed.
• Access to the Market Timing Course Indicator Charts page, where students can check the status of the indicators covered at any time.

For more information, check out the Market Timing Course signup page.