An Extremely Overbought Short-Term Reading That Is Good News For The Bulls

The market is short-term overbought by a number of measures. One measure that short-term traders will sometimes look at is the 2-period RSI. On Friday the 2-period RSI for SPX close over 99 for the 1st time since February. Very strong moves that put a stock or market in an extremely overbought short-term condition can mean that a pause or pullback is needed short-term. But for the intermediate-term it often bodes well. This can be seen in the study below.

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The numbers here are basically neutral for the first week or so. But once you get out 2-3 weeks, it appears the strength has re-asserted itself and the market is often higher. This is an example of how strength can beget more strength. Traders may want to keep this in mind over the next few weeks.

 

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About the author:

Rob Hanna is the founder of Quantifiable Edges, a quantitative market research service he has run since 2008. His research focuses on statistical analysis of U.S. equity markets. In 2009 he published "The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days," available on Amazon. He was named the 2024 recipient of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Founders Award and has since joined the NAAIM Board of Directors. Rob also works with Capital Advisors 360 as an investment advisor representative, where he utilizes quantitative and volatility-based models. Follow him on X / Bluesky / StockTwits / Facebook / Substack