Remarkable about Friday’s 50-day high close is that it came just 8 trading days after SPX closed at a 50-day low. That’s quite rare to see. The study below is from this weekend’s Quantifiable Edges Subscriber Letter. It looks at all the instances since 1950 of a move from a 50-day closing low to a 50-day closing high that have occurred within 2 weeks.

There have only been 7 occurrences but the stats are overwhelmingly bullish over the next month. The profit maxes out on day 17 in the table above. To getting a better feel for the instances I have listed them all below along with 17-day stats.

While 7 instances is a bit low, the results are unanimous and the stats above are incredibly lopsided. So it seems this study may be worth some consideration. The average run-up of the 7 instances is over 5x the size of the average drawdown, and every instance saw a run-up substantially larger than its drawdown. That’s impressive.

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As I write this in the middle of the night, the S&P 500 futures are down between 4% – 5%. A 4% gap down for the SPY is very rare. Below is a list of all other times it has happened since its inception in 1993.

It does not appear as though panic selling at the open would be wise. There seems to be a strong upside edge for this one day. Of course the sample size is low and anything could happen in such a highly charged environment.  But this study certainly suggests an upside edge should a 4% gap down actually materialize.

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Monday marked the 6th day in a row that SPX reversed direction on a closing basis. Friday’s bounce off a 20-day low on Thursday did not get any follow through. But bulls should not be too discouraged by this. The study below is from the Quantifinder. It considers similar situations in the past.

The stats certainly appear bullish and the edge seems to occur both right off the bat and after a couple of weeks. Traders may want to keep this in mind over the next few days.

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Wednesday is a Fed Day, which is defined as a day that a scheduled Fed meeting concludes and policy statements are released. Fed Days occur 8 times per year. Since 1982 they have shown a strong bullish propensity. The chart below is one I showed many years ago, but had not updated in a while. I decided to do so today.

For some comparison, the average Fed Day has gained over 9x the amount of the average non-Fed Day.

If you would like to learn more about Fed Days, numerous studies may be found on the blog, or you can check out the Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days for download or in paperback.

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Friday was the 4th day in a row that the NASDAQ closed higher. While this may not seem to be a big deal, it does not happen very often when the NASDAQ is trading below its 200-day moving average. The table below shows results following all times this has occurred since 2002.

Results here appears to be strongly bearish. And the edge persists for up to 2 weeks.  The note at the bottom is worth considering, in that all 21 instances saw some kind of pullback in the next week.  Traders may want to keep this in mind over the next few days.
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