October Opex Week Has Historically Been Bullish

From a seasonal standpoint option expiration week is often a pretty good week for the market. October is one of those months where it has been especially good over the years. The study below examines performance during October op-ex week.

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I decided to exclude 2008 because action that week was such an incredible outlier that it greatly skewed all the stats. (The week started with an 11.5% gain on Monday of 2008.) Results 1-4 days out look pretty solid. So the bulls appear to have some seasonal forces on their side this week.
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About the author:

Rob Hanna is the founder of Quantifiable Edges, a quantitative market research service he has run since 2008. His research focuses on statistical analysis of U.S. equity markets. In 2009 he published "The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days," available on Amazon. He was named the 2024 recipient of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Founders Award and has since joined the NAAIM Board of Directors. Rob also works with Capital Advisors 360 as an investment advisor representative, where he utilizes quantitative and volatility-based models. Follow him on X / Bluesky / StockTwits / Facebook / Substack