When SPY is up > 1% before the Fed Day announcement

The market is off to a strong start to the day, with SPX up over 1% at around noon EST. I decided to look back at all times the market was up at least 1% at 2pm on a Fed Day (the typical time for a statement release). Below is the full list of instances and their 2pm – 4pm EST performance to finish the day.

SPX up > 1% pre-Fed announcement.

Returns here are mixed, and don’t suggest a strong directional edge either way. There have been some strong moves in both directions after the announcement. I also filtered for times SPY was in a long-term uptrend (above its 200-day moving average). Those results are below.

up 1% pre-Fed with 200ma filter

These results are a bit more encouraging. Six of the ten instances saw further gains. One finished flat vs 2pm. The other three saw only mild declines, but still finished the day overall positive. Should be an interesting finish to the day. The good start seems to be a potential positive.

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