Why the Persistently Low VXO is an Uh-Oh

Both the VIX and VXO (which is the old calculation for the VIX) closed well below their 10-day average for the 3rd day in a row on Friday.  This action in VXO triggered a study that I last discussed here on the blog on July 5, 2011 (though I have discussed it in the subscriber letter a few times since).  It looks for stretches of 15% or more below the 10ma that persist for 3 days.

Based on the stats table there appears to be a downside inclination. I find the note at the bottom of the study to be especially interesting. Nearly every case has experienced an almost immediate pullback, but those that didn’t went without pulling back for a long time.