One index providing interesting readings is VXO (the old VIX calculation). On Monday it closed a little more than 15% below its 10ma. And it may do that again today. At one time, such rapid drops in the VXO were often followed by a move lower in the SPX. But this has not been as consistent in recent years. Below is a study I showed in last night’s Subscriber Letter.
Stats here seem to suggest a bit of a downside inclination. But the equity curve tells a little bit of a different story.
The downside edge seemed apparent for the 1st 60 instances or so. But the last 25, all of which occurred over the last 3 years since June 2010, have been extremely choppy and shown no progress. For whatever reason the market seems to have changed, and traders should be aware of that.