Both the VIX and VXO (which is the old calculation for the VIX) closed well below their 10-day average for the 3rd day in a row on Friday. This action in VXO triggered a study that I last discussed here on the blog on January 7, 2013. The January instance followed the fiscal cliff deal at the end of last year, which was similar to the recent shutdown/debt ceiling debate. The study looks for stretches of 15% or more below the 10ma that have persisted for three days.
Based on the stats table there appears to be a downside inclination. I find the note at the bottom of the study to be especially interesting. Nearly every case has experienced an almost immediate pullback, but those that didn’t went without pulling back for a long time.