In last night’s subscriber letter I showed a few studies suggesting the market was short-term overbought in a long-term downtrend, and that there appeared to be a short-term downside edge. Below is one of those studies, which also appeared in the Quantifinder yesterday afternoon.
![SPY perf after run-up in downtrend](https://quantifiableedges.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-03-18-1.png)
Those are some powerful numbers. And only 1 instance did not post a lower close in the next 3 days. Below is a look at the 4-day profit curve.
![](https://quantifiableedges.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-03-18-2.png)
Despite the recent bump up, that is a long, persistent downslope. Traders may want to consider this as they set their market bias.
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