With regards to seasonality, we are in an interesting period right now. The last couple of weeks the market played out well according to seasonal patterns. We saw March opex week put in nice gains as it often does. And then we saw the week after Quad-witching suffer losses this past week. Interestingly, the week after the 4th Friday in March has been a strong one over the last 21 years. (Not as much before that.) We can see this in the study below.
Numbers here are very good. I’ll note that the following week could be 4 or 5 days since it is sometimes impacted by the Good Friday holiday before Easter. Below is a look at the 4-day profit curve.
No red flags based on the curve. There appears to be a good chance the market will have a seasonal wind at its back this upcoming week. But I do have 2 concerns about the above study: 1) As already mentioned, Easter sometimes falls during this time, so some of the positive seasonality may be due to the holiday. 2) The turn of the month often offers good numbers. And early April has seen a lot of good returns over the years. Often you will get a little early-April action in the week following the 4th Friday of March. But that also is not the case this year. So the market MAY have a bullish seasonal wind at its back this week, but my confidence is a little lower in that than the seasonal studies I have shared the last couple of weeks.
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