Performance After 10% Up Months

April finished with a 12.7% gain for the SPX. That is the strongest 1-month gain since January of 1987. In last night’s subscriber letter I decided to look back at all other instances following 1-month SPX (or its predecessor the S&P 90) gains of 10% or more. The table below shows all instances since 1928.


The averages, medians, and % wins all look very mild, suggesting there may not be a clear edge looking forward. Of course a lot of the instances occurred in the 1930s. If you only look back to 1962, then the forward returns other than the 21-day (1-month) all look quite favorable. So for a 3-12 month view, perhaps it is worth considering whether the current market environment is more similar to the one we have seen over the last 60 years, or the one seen in the 1930s. I would say that arguments could be made in either direction.




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