Another big day down today and still the VIX isn’t stretched. An observation I’ve seen several traders make is that while the S&P fell hard last week, the VIX (and VXO) didn’t rise. The interpretation by some is that this suggests a lack of fear and is short-term bearish. I was unable to find evidence to support this theory. Below is one test I ran that looked at other times the S&P fell at least 2.5% while the VXO also fell.
I wouldn’t call the results bullish but I wouldn’t call them bearish either. I would suggest that perhaps the VIX is simply an indicator lacking a solid edge for the time being.