Monday When The Good Friday Employment Report Has Gone Bad

The employment report was released at 8:30am on Friday and the reaction in the futures was not good. ES sold down over 20 points in the next 45 minutes before closing for the day. As of Monday morning it has not bounced much. So it appears we are about to see a sizable gap lower..

Since inception of the SPY in 1993 there have only been 6 instances where the employment release came on Good Friday with the markets closed. And only 3 of those times did the market gap down to start the day on Monday. Here’s is what happened between the open and the close on Monday after those 3 instances.

2015-04-06 image1

There is nothing we can really learn with any degree of confidence based on just 3 instances. But it is a little encouraging for the bulls that the initial open lower was a bit of an over-reaction all three times.



Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.