Monday & Tuesday Both Up – Did Thanksgiving Bullishness Just Get Front-Run?

A few days ago, I noted the seasonal bullishness around Thanksgiving, especially from Tuesday’s close to Friday’s close. One potential issue with seasonal studies is that they can sometimes get front-run, and then the edge weakens. It is now Tuesday, and the market is moving up strongly for the 2nd day in a row. So I decided to look back at other times where SPX closed higher on the Monday and Tuesday before Thanksgiving. The table below shows all instances since the inception of the modern S&P 500 in 1957.

Monday and Tuesday Both Up Prior To Thanksgiving. 2-day forward odds.

In this case, it does not appear that the Monday-Tuesday rally has eliminated the seasonal bullish tendency. In fact, it appears that the momentum has carried well through the holiday. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

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