Low Volume Bounces Like Monday’s Have Fared Poorly in Recent Times

Monday’s bounce in reaction to Friday’s drop came on the lowest NYSE volume in a week. Below I have listed all instances since 2002 where the market has dropped 2% one day and then risen the next on the lowest volume in a week.

This would seem to suggest a downside edge for Tuesday. One caveat though is that prior to 2002 this downside edge was not evident. Another issue is that today’s apparent gap down may mean much or all of the downside edge could have been realized overnight.