It looks like we should see some strong action on Monday. News out of Cyprus has S&P futures down about 1.5% as I type this late at night. I decided to look back at other times that SPY was trading near a 200-day high and then gapped down over 1% overnight.
There have not been a whole lot of instances, but early indications suggest there could be more selling after the open. Below is a list of all the instances.
November 2009 was the only instance that put in much of a gain. And even that one failed to fill it gap at any point during the day. None of the others even bounced back as much as 0.6% on an intraday basis. If the market does open as weak as it appears it may at this point, then chances of a strong upside reversal don’t appear very good.