How The Long-term Trend Can Influence Results

We continue to see light volume dominate the indices and the ETF’s as the market is hitting new highs here. QQQQ triggered a study that was shown on the blog a little over a year ago on 4/22/08. Below is an updated results table of that study, which looks at very low volume while the market is in a short-term uptrend.

While I didn’t look specifically at the longer-term trend in that post, it is often helpful to put studies into their longer-term context. The last couple of days QQQQ has closed above its 200-day moving. Below I broke down the results of the original test into those times it triggered below and above its 200-day moving average.

Filtering by the long-term trend can have a dramatic effect on certain studies. QQQQ is the first major index to cross its 200-day moving average. Should the rally continue and the other major indices follow it will be important for traders to keep the long-term trend in mind when considering trades.