When I wrote my Time & CBI post last night, I did so with the intention of enjoying my day off and not writing anything tonight. Foreign markets and U.S. futures have helped to ruin my plans. Will the gap down tomorrow morning (should it continue to be in the 4%-5% it looks like now) affect my thinking based on last night’s study?
I still think we are getting stretched time-wise. The CBI could really jump by the close tomorrow – I’ll try and update the reading during the day and definitely by tomorrow night. Is it possible the market could fall another 5%, 10%, 15% before bouncing? Sure. The bounce will be fierce, though, and the further we fall before the bounce (and the higher the CBI goes), the more fierce it will likely be. Exact timing is difficult, but I still believe aggressive traders can begin toe-dipping. I believe a tradeable bounce will occur within the next 5-6 days at the most – probably sooner.
As of yet I will make no prediction as to the sustainability of the bounce. I am currently looking at it as a swing trade and not a long-term buying opportunity.