Fed Days have generally exhibited an upside bias for about 30 years. Many times this has been thanks to the Fed giving a confidence boost to a struggling market. But what of those times where the market is already at an intermediate-term high. With the SPX closing at a new rally high yesterday this is the situation the market is now in. Below is a study that take a look.
What I see here is that there has been no tendency for the market to advance under these circumstances. There could even be a slight downside edge, but the numbers aren’t compelling enough for me to bank on that. I’d simply view it as neutral.