Today is a Fed Day. I’ve shown in the past how Fed Days have had a substantial upside bias. This was illustrated most clearly in my September 23, 2009 post showing a chart of all Fed Days. Of course at this point in time the market is strongly overbought. For those wondering whether this negatively impacts the chances of a positive Fed Day, it doesn’t appear to based on this post from March 18, 2009.
With trading conditions likely to be slow mid-day as the announcement approaches, traders may want to review some of my other Fed Day studies as well.
I’d also like to point out some recent work by others on the subject. This past Friday Tom McClellan reproduced my September 23rd Fed Day chart for his “Chart In Focus” and added his own observations and commentary. Tom’s chart actually went back a bit further than mine and he breaks it down by fed chairman, which I found interesting. You can see Tom’s take on it here:
And last night in his “Gap Wrap” video, Scott Andrews of Master the Gap showed some interesting research that discussed the probabilities associated with gaps filling on Fed Days. He showed both gaps up and gaps down statistics, and the results were quite interesting. You may view his video here: