Considering This Morning’s Gap

The SPY is looking to gap up over 1% as I write this. It has also closed higher 3 days in a row. Back in April I looked at large gaps up after the market ha already risen. This study suggests risk/reward favors the downside should SPY gap more than 1% this morning. The fact that the SPY closed within a range rather than at a 10-day high makes it a little less encouraging.. Overall, should this gap hold until the open, I would estimate a mild edge to the downside from open to close.