Last night I discussed the T2116 indicator. I noted that since 1986 there were only four other periods of time where the indicator had risen above the 58.1% level where it stood yesterday. Each instance would have been an opportunistic time to be long.
Today doesn’t even come close to those. It’s less than half the “worst” ones.
Does it matter?
Back in March, I posted a study that looked at explosions of 3.5% or more following a 100-day low. The results were quite impressive. Tonight I broke down the results by percentage gained on the fist up day. I looked at 3 periods – 5, 10, and 15 days out. Results below:
I also looked at today’s volume and breadth statistics and found nothing substantial. The market was certainly oversold enough that it could put in a rally over the next few days and weeks, but today’s start was not impressive.