I took a look this morning to see how the market has typically reacted when faced with a big gap down on a Monday morning. Results below examine all gaps of 0.75% or more and measure the performance from the 9:30 open to the 4pm close.
Numbers here look a bit poor. I also ran a profit curve.
The curve shows that the downside edge appears to have lessened over time. I also decided to break it down by the long-term trend. These next 2 charts show results when below and then above the 200ma.
It appears the real damage has been done during long-term downtrends. During uptrends, big gaps down on Monday’s have been neither reliably bullish nor reliably bearish. Additional evidence would be needed for me to initiate a new position.