Positive seasonality has been run over the past 2 days by strong selling. To see such a weak start to a month is rare. There have only been 5 other times since its inception where the SPY lost over 2% on the 1st day of the month and then closed lower again on the 2nd day of the month. That’s a very low sample size but over the next couple of weeks returns have been outstanding. Below I have listed all 5 instances.
The average return over the 2-week period has been close to 9%, and the worst trade gained 6%! I’d be surprised to see the market repeat returns this strong over the next couple of weeks, but the results and consistency are impressive enough that it seems worth considering the pattern of the last 2 days may suggest a bullish influence over the next 2 weeks.