A Lame Reversal

In one of my first blog entries I looked at S&P 500 reversal bars that made new 20-day lows and then rallied strongly to finish the day up 1% or more on higher volume. A key ingredient in that study was the 1% price rise. While the market put in a reversal Thursday on increased volume the price rise was not that impressive. The first table below is the one from January’s study:

This next table shows what happens to reversal bars with unimpressive price advances like Thursday (again 1978-present):

The January study showed a clear edge to the upside from an average trade standpoint. That edge disappears when the reversal is weak. Doesn’t look like Thursday’s action is anything to get to hyped about.