When SPY Gaps Down Below 2 Up Closes

SPY is currently (9am pre-open) trading below the close of the last 2 days – both of which were up days.  Below is a study that shows how the market has performed open to close when this has occured in the past.

Not encouraging stats if you’re a bull.  Below is an equity curve to see how it has played out over time.

The consistent downslope acts as confirmation of the bearish edge. 

One other note: I also checked to see how many instances occured when the close of 2 days ago was a 10-day low (like now).  There was only 1.  It was 1/20/09.  It was the “worst” performer, losing about 4.3% from open to close.  Even if we sell off, I’d be very surprised to see that duplicated.