SPY is currently (9am pre-open) trading below the close of the last 2 days – both of which were up days. Below is a study that shows how the market has performed open to close when this has occured in the past.
Not encouraging stats if you’re a bull. Below is an equity curve to see how it has played out over time.
The consistent downslope acts as confirmation of the bearish edge.
One other note: I also checked to see how many instances occured when the close of 2 days ago was a 10-day low (like now). There was only 1. It was 1/20/09. It was the “worst” performer, losing about 4.3% from open to close. Even if we sell off, I’d be very surprised to see that duplicated.