As I type at 8am EST the SPY is up about 1.7% pre-market. Going back to 2003 there have been 9 times the SPY has gapped up at least 1.5% after closing at a 10-day low. Every time it has risen more between the open and the close. Below I’ve listed all the instances.

Should this morning’s gap hold until the open we could see a short-covering rally ensue. You should note, though that drawdowns have been sizable in several instances (last column).