When SPX hit a new high on Tuesday (Aug 21st), doing so deemed the 6/12/12 Follow-Through Day (FTD) “successful” according to the possible definitions of “success” I included in the FTD studies.
Based on a number of the FTD studies, this one bucked the odds. For one, it came on moderate volume. Secondly, breadth was unremarkable. And lastly, it occurred in June. It was only the 8th FTD to occur in June since 1971 and only the 2nd one to succeed.
Despite all this, the rally went on to new highs. That’s why I talk about odds and not certainties. This FTD will now be clustered in with the rest and the odds will be recalculated next time one occurs.