The SPX closed lower by 3% today. I’ve looked at drops of 5% or more in depth in the last few months and found there to be a tendency for a short-term bounce following such steep drops. Tonight I decided to see how drops between 2.5% and 5% have fared since the beginning of the bear market.

In these cases further downside was more common. 84% of instances closed below the trigger price at some point in the next 3 days.