The market gapped down this morning, sold off to put in a 10-day low and then reversed and closed above the open. Both the open and close were in the upper half of the day’s range. I ran a test too see possible significance of this type of bar. Below are the results:
What’s amazing about today is that it is the 2nd day in a row we’ve had this same formation. I ran a test to see how the market has reacted to back to back reversal bars like this in the past and came up empty. This was the first time it has occurred for the SPY. It has never occurred for the NDX.
The above reversal bar on its own has shown a mildly bullish tendency. We’ll see if the market can muster anything more than a late-day rumor-inspired pop.
Capitulative Breadth Indicator(CBI)
The CBI hit “5” today. This is the first level that I consider significant. Since 1995, buying the S&P 500 when the CBI closed at “5” or higher and selling when it was back to “3” would have results in 77% winning trades and gross profits outsizing gross losses by over 5:1. I generally don’t buy at this level but rather cease taking on new short positions. The cluster that is forming could easily rise to “7” or “10” in the next day or so if the market continues to drop. At those levels I may consider index longs.