Friday’s rally generated the 2nd 90% Up Volume day within 5 days. In other words, on the NYSE 90% of the reported volume went into securities that closed higher. Last Tuesday we also saw this happen. In the past 2 such days in close proximity has been a positive sign for the intermediate-term. It is something I shared in the subscriber letter over the weekend, and wanted to post to the blog – but did not get a chance until now. With nearly 9 months left in the study and hardly any move on Monday, I thought it was still plenty fresh enough to share. So below is a list of the 9 (non-overlapping) instances and their 9-month performance.
The 2007 instance did not pan out, but every other instance was followed by a powerful 9-month rally. The “smallest” rally over the next 9 months was the 13.3% gain in ’84-’85. Those are some very strong moves. Instances are low, but the breadth thrust certainly seems to favor the bulls.
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Rob Hanna is the founder of Quantifiable Edges, a quantitative market research service he has run since 2008. His research focuses on statistical analysis of U.S. equity markets, including studies on FOMC patterns, VIX dynamics, seasonal effects, gap behavior, market breadth, and other quantitative edges. In 2009 he published "The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days," available on Amazon. He was named the 2024 recipient of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Founders Award and currently serves on the NAAIM Board of Directors. His articles have appeared in several trading and investment publications, and he has been a guest on numerous trading podcasts. Rob has been a featured speaker at annual conferences for the CMT Association (formerly Market Technicians Association), the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts (AAPTA), and NAAIM. He ran a private investment partnership from 2001 through 2019 before joining Capital Advisors 360 as an investment advisor representative, where he trades quantitative and volatility-based models for clients.. Follow him on Twitter / Facebook.
