Long-Term Implications of Last Week’s Breadth Thrust

Friday’s rally generated the 2nd 90% Up Volume day within 5 days. In other words, on the NYSE 90% of the reported volume went into securities that closed higher. Last Tuesday we also saw this happen. In the past 2 such days in close proximity has been a positive sign for the intermediate-term. It is something I shared in the subscriber letter over the weekend, and wanted to post to the blog – but did not get a chance until now. With nearly 9 months left in the study and hardly any move on Monday, I thought it was still plenty fresh enough to share. So below is a list of the 9 (non-overlapping) instances and their 9-month performance.

2015-02-02 image1

The 2007 instance did not pan out, but every other instance was followed by a powerful 9-month rally. The “smallest” rally over the next 9 months was the 13.3% gain in ’84-’85. Those are some very strong moves. Instances are low, but the breadth thrust certainly seems to favor the bulls.

 

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

About the author:

Rob Hanna is the founder of Quantifiable Edges, a quantitative market research service he has run since 2008. His research focuses on statistical analysis of U.S. equity markets. In 2009 he published "The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days," available on Amazon. He was named the 2024 recipient of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Founders Award and has since joined the NAAIM Board of Directors. Rob also works with Capital Advisors 360 as an investment advisor representative, where he utilizes quantitative and volatility-based models. Follow him on X / Bluesky / StockTwits / Facebook / Substack