July Remains King of Day 1 Performance

Since the late 80s there has been a tendency for the market to rally on the first day of the month.  One theory on why this occurs is that there are often 401k inflows that are put to work on the 1st of the month.   I examined this tendency and broke it down by month here on the blog a few times over the years. I decided to update the study again today.

As you can see, July has both the highest Win % and the largest Avg Trade. So maybe some of that July magic will help the bulls on Monday. I’ll also note that August has had the worst Day-1 performance of any month. Below is a more detailed look at how July has played out.

Impressive stats and curve. And the last 13 instances have all been winners. Traders may want to keep this in mind.