Both June and July saw SPX close lower. Seasonality for those two months it is generally favorable. But since 1950, two of the weakest months are August (3rd worst) and September (worst). So in this weekend’s letter I decided to see how August and September fared when we already had June and July slipping. The table below gives us an answer.

After down closes in both June and July. August has generally been a toss-up. Sometimes it got a bit of a rebound and sometimes it didn’t. But regardless of whether August rebounded or not, September numbers look pretty terrible. Eleven out of the thirteen Septembers closed lower and many of them by sizable amounts. This seems worth keeping in mind while we consider other intermediate-term evidence that emerges over the next 3-4 weeks.

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