I’ve shown the chart below several times over the years. It breaks down by month the performance of the first trading day of the month. July has long had the strongest Day 1. But August is also notable for it’s lack of Day 1 performance.
As you can see it is the only month with a negative Day 1 return. Below is a look at how it has played out over time.
This doesn’t appear to be a bearish setup. Just a bunch of chop that has failed to generate gains over time. But while it doesn’t hint at a down day on August 1st, it certainly shows that August 1 has certainly not been seasonally bullish.