When A New Year Starts On A Positive Note

Last night’s subscriber letter featured (an expanded version of) the following study, which looks at performance in the 1st couple of days following a positive 1st day of a new year.


The stats and curve all suggest some immediate follow-through has been typical. There have now been 9 winners in a row, with the last loser occurring in 1998.  Also notable is that 24 of the 26 instances (92%) closed higher than the entry price on either day 1 or day 2. Interestingly, the 2 instances that didn’t also didn’t manage to post a close above the entry price at any point during the rest of the month.



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